This invention relates to estimating traffic rates, and more particularly to estimating the traffic rates of large traffic sources.
Within the long-distance telephone industry, an ever present need exists to accurately track telephone call traffic rates (hereinafter "traffic rates"). A knowledge of accurate traffic rates allows a network operations center or other monitoring facility to balance calling loads among different databases within a network so that network overloading may be reduced. Reduced network overloading in turn improves overall network performance as network overloading not only degrades throughput at a specific network element, but also stresses the signaling network, databases, switches, and trunking network all at the same time.
A network operations center may, for instance, use traffic rate information to predict/manage mass calling events. A mass calling event occurs when a single customer generates abnormally high network traffic (such as during a radio or television promotion) which threatens to overload the network. Accurate and timely traffic rate estimates assist a network operations center in predicting and eradicating these types of overloads through rapid isolation of the traffic source responsible for the mass calling event.
Traffic rate information may also be used for general network overload management. Typically a list of the largest traffic sources in a network (e.g., the traffic sources which need controlling during a network overload) is compiled so that overloads may be rapidly eliminated by rerouting the traffic sources on the list. Accurate traffic rate information ensures that only the proper (e.g., largest) sources are listed and controlled during an overload condition.
Traffic rate information is also required for other network management functions. For example, during database partitioning, decisions must be made regarding which traffic sources can share databases without creating overload conditions. Accurate traffic rate information improves these type of resource allotment decisions.
Traffic rate measurements are typically performed at several locations within a telephone network, and are categorized by a "class" associated with each telephone number (i.e., a particular 800 number, database, or other attribute associated with the telephone number, including the telephone number itself). Conventional methods for traffic rate estimation sample only a small percentage (e.g., 5%) of network telephone calls. Upon sampling a dialed telephone number, a table is searched to identify whether the class associated with the sampled telephone number has been previously identified. If so, a count associated with the class is incremented; otherwise the class is added to the table. Based on the count for each class within the table during a known time period, an estimation of the traffic rate for each class may be determined.
Because the table must be searched and updated for every telephone number sampled, such estimation schemes are real-time intensive, requiring substantial computing resources. This is the very reason why only a small percentage of network calls are sampled. By sampling infrequently, the number of database searches required during traffic rate estimation is reduced. Infrequent sampling, however, also reduces estimation accuracy unless a large number of samples are taken (which further consumes time and processing power). Accuracy must therefore be balanced with speed in these type of sampling configurations.
Furthermore, because of the random nature of such sampling, statistics are maintained on small traffic sources (which have little impact on network management decisions) as well as on large traffic sources (which govern nearly all network management decisions). This greatly increases the size of the database used to store class statistics, and the number of classes which must be searched following each sampling.
A need therefore exists for a system and method for accurately estimating traffic rates without requiring extensive real-time database searching. Such a system and method will improve telephone network performance by allowing a network operations center to quickly and accurately balance calling loads among different databases and to make better informed network management decisions. More generally, such a system and method can be employed for traffic rate estimation during any addressing event (e.g., for determining computer network traffic rates, data bus traffic rates, and the like).
It is therefore an object of this invention to provide an improved system and method for estimating traffic rates.